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Economists at Australia's Westpac Banking Group have pushed back their forecasts for a rate cut by the country's central bank to November from October, saying it would allow the government "clear air" to sell its budget.
Westpac economist Bill Evans said on Monday he expects the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) to cut the cash rate by 15 basis points to 0.1% and commit to buying bonds in the 5-10 year maturities at its Nov. 3 board meeting.
Just last Wednesday, Evans had predicted a move on Oct. 6, the same day as the delayed federal budget as part of a "Team Australia" initiative with both fiscal and monetary policy authorities working closely together.
But Evans has since changed his outlook. "A central bank moving on Budget Day could be interpreted by the government and the bank itself as diverting attention away from the Budget and complicating the government's task in 'selling' the Budget," Evans said in a research note.
"The Governor himself, who has been such a strong proponent of fiscal policy, may also see the advantages of allowing space for the government to promote its Budget."
RBA Governor Philip Lowe has often extolled the virtues of fiscal stimulus to aid a faster recovery of an economy facing its worst downturn since the Great Depression.
While Lowe has said the RBA board was considering other policy options to support jobs and growth, he has repeatedly added there are limits to what monetary policy can achieve in current times.
Expectations of further policy easing have knocked the Australian dollar AUD=D3 to a two-month trough of $0.7006 from as high as $0.7413 at the start of this month.
The currency was last up 0.2% at $0.7042.
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Open | High | Low | Value | Volume |
$33.13 | $33.76 | $33.00 | $130.5M | 3.883M |
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No. | Vol. | Price($) |
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1 | 1000 | $33.65 |
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Price($) | Vol. | No. |
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No. | Vol. | Price($) |
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1 | 1000 | 33.650 |
2 | 685 | 33.630 |
1 | 12507 | 33.620 |
1 | 6110 | 33.590 |
1 | 2545 | 33.580 |
Price($) | Vol. | No. |
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33.740 | 326 | 1 |
33.750 | 1296 | 2 |
33.760 | 6945 | 6 |
33.770 | 14550 | 2 |
33.780 | 14000 | 1 |
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