One month of pluto offline is about 4mboe Yes, there is field decline esp in the NWS. Sangomar, as has already been noted is having no production in the numbers, so there can only be upside there. I suspect that meg is making sure that the target will be met. It is always good, as a minimum, to have P 50 forecast (50% right). A better forecast is P 75 or P 90 (then the probability of surprising on the upside is higher) WDS, this year, for instance increased their forecast for 22 in Oct, from the forecast in July. So, I suspect that they are making trying to set reasonable market expectations.
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