News: WDS Sheffield Resources Says Thunderbird Secures Binding LNG Supply Agreement, page-8

Thanks for your reply...after posting to your thesis...I did some more numbers....
Guess work on most part but also quoting some of their annual numbers.

DCF valuation
Northwest Shelf US $6,418 = $4.64
Pluto US $10,886 = $7.80
Australian Oil & Gas US $4,153 = $3.02
Wheatstone US $4,535 = $3.25
Browse US $ 189 = $.13
Scarborough US $ 5,145 = $3.51
Americas US $16,023 = $12.06
Other (including Myanmar, Senegal, Kitimat) US $5,073 = $3.09

Enterprise value US $52,422
Net debt US $615
Equity NPV US $51,807

I used these metrics as per OPEC thesis of 3.1 (mbpd) value $ 37.00
Now they have revised downwards of 2.7 (mbpd) new value $ 30.00

My sentiment as the Barrel falls to lets say $65 for a low point I would place my order for 50,000 units at $24.97
When the EU winter reality sets in as now it seems clear Putin has won the war, it will be easy enough for $100 pb which of course raises the LNG pricing mechanism as well.
Of course this is all pin the tail on the donkey gobble gook from OPEC & I think they are questionable at the best of times....

The cash flow profiles of the two businesses are complementary now which is a gift for any company.
With the stock below NPV.
So with a DCF valuation using a 9.0% post-tax WACC (beta of 1.4x, pre-tax cost of debt 8.0%) and lets say current oil price forecasts which again I reiterate means little.
CY22 underlying net profit of US1.82bn, 9% ahead of forecasts which does not mean much of $1.67bn.
A fully franked interim dividend of US109cps was declared, versus our US88cps estimate, representing a payout ratio of 80% and setting a new record is alway a positive for any company going forward...how ever the SP ran so hard I simply did not buy into it for the DIVS & chose to buy into BHP for divs, sold at $38 then bought into FMG and sold $1 above my buyin price and still collected fmg divs...it made more sense as I read the shortfall in ports inventories for 62% FE.
Additional capital management does not appear to be imminent for Woodside, with management taking a more conservative view of the balance sheet ahead of growth which indicated to me SP would fall heavily after DIV EX.

Woodside’s definition of underlying net profit of US$1.8bn included US$494m as gain on the sale of Pluto T2.
Excluding this non-recurring benefit, its fair to estimate underlying net profit of US$1.4bn which was below forecast of US$1.7bn, with the difference coming primarily from additional costs associated with trading.
Net debt of US$2.3bn was also below forecast due mainly to a true-up payment from the acquisition of BHP Group’s (BHP, Hold) petroleum assets occurring in the half.

The calculation for the dividend comprised 80% of underlying net profit plus a portion of the BHP completion payment.
The company’s targeted gearing range was lowered to 10–20% (from 15–35%), which appears conservative despite the expected increase in growth capital expenditure which is great.
Management noted that once the interim dividend has been paid, Woodside would have a gearing ratio of 13% within its targeted range....I love that....
Management will consider share buybacks and/or special dividends, although these do not appear to be imminent and are likely dependent on commodity prices remaining elevated.

This is why I love this company & in fact everything about it, but it is still over valued from my traders point of view because of sentiment & that alone and being in a trough before it breaks out again.
My sentiments of course...
Thanks for your reply & all the best with your trades
RDD