I’m afraid I missed the “collapse”. I have noticed a “decline”...

I’m afraid I missed the “collapse”. I have noticed a “decline” in the oil price from a very high level to a high level…I take it this is the “collapse” you are referring to?

In answer to your question about the “break even” oil price, I think it’s about $30 per barrel.

As we all know (and accept) the oil price is highly cyclical. Sometimes it’s over $100, at another times it’s below the break even price. The company hedges to smooth that ride out to some extent.

We shouldn’t fear oil price declines too much. As the old saying goes “the best cure for a low oil price is a low oil price”. Demand tends to increase in response to the cheaper price.

My own view is that the dearth of new projects globally in recent years is going to result in generally higher oil prices. There will still be significant peaks and troughs, but the coming supply and demand imbalance (highlighted in the company’s recent investor day presentation) suggests the price of oil will (overall) tend towards strength for another couple of decades.

That’s how I see it. I accept that I could be wrong. I have noticed you see it differently. That’s fine. One of us will be proved right, but not for a long time. If we see $150 oil next year, it doesn’t mean I’ve been proved right. And if we see it fall below break even, it doesn’t mean you’ve been proved right either. What matters is the long term trend in the oil price, having little regard to extreme peaks and troughs. I’m betting it will be favourable.