Great analysis. I think your read on the 3 main holders is very logical. Though, as I understand it, NRW have basically got the contract for the set few years. I doubt that would bother WGX. Here is a hail mary... After the deal goes through, NRW buys up WGX mining teams/equipment etc. Win for both parties, as WGX has mentioned they would like to be back to being a pure gold stock.
Sparta is indeed the likeliest to be less interested in this offer, though... big money, has other rationale for making decisions, unlike us retailers.
Regarding AME, I have nothing against them, and in some ways, the results they have have in the past 12 months, have been fairly good. But... nothing that has really moved the dial so to speak to enable a new processing hub (though trucking could be viable one day).
You 100% hit the nail on the head regarding how they worded their views on GCYs team. If they do buy up GCY, they won't be removing staff! They barely have enough at WGX as it is. GCY has done what MOY was unable to do... (come back from the dead). I feel they have even done better than DCN's turn-a-round.
You could be right about the offer changing and the metrics. I do feel that if WGX gained control, it would definitely prove boost their base valuation. As others have pointed out, WGX does have other high grade U/G deposits that could feed Dalgaranga.
@hightrax - its not about the grade, its about the margins. Sure, the grades are low, but... after FY22.... GCY will see it generate its entire market cap and more in just 2 years at current POG. I cannot deny that I doubt I will see a dividend from GCY, but then, that's not why I hold.
@Gwaihir - great points. Though after no offers were made until this week, I just assumed that any bidders were waiting for the GCY/FFR merger to finish, then grab the lot.
I will stick to my view that RMS is the logical buyer of GCY though. They have been looking at upgrading their checkers plant for the past 2 years... costs have only gone up!
Anyway, the synergies for WGX/GCY are not yet clear. Sort of feel like WGX will need to spell that out, otherwise how can GCY holders fully comprehended the longer term value add.
Good luck to all holders.
WGX Price at posting:
$1.64 Sentiment: Hold Disclosure: Held
(20min delay)