The official exported oil volume for Iran has fallen by about 1M barrels a day under sanctions to 1.6M a day in 2015 from avg 2.6M barrels a day in 2011 when the new sanctions kicked in. In 2011 global oil demand was 90M barrels a day. By 2016 it is 96M barrels a day. i.e. global demand has increased by 6M barrels a day while iran export has fallen by 1M barrels due to sanctions.
I would not be too concerned about an additional 1M barrels a day on the market from Iran - Global demand growth in 2016 is expected to be 1.5M barrels a day of growth! Iran getting back to where they were in 2011 will be absorbed in 6 months of demand growth at current projections.
Baker Hughes shows more than half of the worlds drill rigs out of action. Supply will crunch soon because nobody invests in exploration or well maintenance when prices are down. When the supply curve falls below the demand curve prices will rebound at rapid pace (and probably overshoot).
I expect this to happen by 2H 2016.
http://phx.corporate-ir.net/phoenix.zhtml?c=79687&p=irol-rigcountsoverview
The official exported oil volume for Iran has fallen by about 1M...
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