Just looking at PEN and others who were buying cheap spot u308 to meet their contracts. Others are in the same place not just PEN.
AI question below only considered the Majors
I added this "Ur-Energy
"
Ur-Energy has seven contracts totaling 5.84 million lbs over the next few years, with 2025 commitments at 440,000 lbs.
Recent production improvements have brought the annualized rate to over 400,000 lbs, approaching 2025 commitments, but the current rate is still slightly below total obligations (including a 250,000-lb loan repayment).
"How many uranium miners have contracted deliveries and are unlikely to have enough supplies to meet those contracts"
"Many uranium miners have contracted delivery commitments, but a significant number are unlikely to have enough supply to meet those contracts due to persistent production shortfalls and structural supply issues. Most established mines are operating below their stated capacities, and new projects face long development timelines and financing challenges57. For example, even top producers like Cigar Lake and Kazatomprom are running 10–25% below capacity, and restarts such as MacArthur River and Honeymoon are producing far less than targeted5.
While some miners, like Ur-Energy, are close to meeting their 2025 delivery commitments, they still face tight margins and rely on inventory to bridge gaps6. Industry-wide, the uranium market is entering a period where production is consistently below global reactor requirements, and commercial inventories are rapidly shrinking8. This means many miners with contracted deliveries are at risk of being unable to fulfill all obligations unless new supply comes online or prices rise enough to incentivize new production4578.
Citations:
- https://discoveryalert.com.au/news/uranium-production-us-isr-method-facilities-2025/
- https://www.eia.gov/uranium/marketing/
- https://discoveryalert.com.au/news/uranium-production-challenges-2025/
- https://www.cruxinvestor.com/posts/uranium-market-faces-critical-supply-challenges-as-demand-grows
- https://discoveryalert.com.au/news/uranium-supply-challenges-2025-market-deficit/
- https://www.stocktitan.net/news/URG/ur-energy-provides-production-and-construction-updates-for-2025-t9679petkuzc.html
- https://discoveryalert.com.au/news/uranium-supply-challenges-2025-industry-issues/
- https://www.globalxetfs.com.au/insights/post/uranium-supply-approaches-a-tipping-point/
- https://www.orano.group/en/news/news-group/2025/march/orano-and-navoiyuran-sign-an-agreement-paving-the-way-for-the-industrial-development-of-the-south-djengeldi-uranium-deposit-in-uzbekistan
- https://world-nuclear.org/information-library/nuclear-fuel-cycle/uranium-resources/supply-of-uranium
- https://www.juniorminingnetwork.com/junior-miner-news/press-releases/557-tsx/ure/178594-ur-energy-provides-production-and-construction-updates-for-2025-q1.html
- https://www.world-nuclear-news.org/articles/kazatomprom-lowers-2025-uranium-production-expecta
- https://sprott.com/insights/higher-uranium-prices-allow-miners-to-resume-production/
- https://sprott.com/insights/uranium-miners-lead-market-higher/
- https://www.cruxinvestor.com/posts/fully-funded-uranium-developer-racing-toward-q3-2025-production
- https://discoveryalert.com.au/news-article/uranium-spot-price-falling-2025-market-dynamics/
- https://investors.energyfuels.com/2025-02-27-Energy-Fuels-Announces-2024-Results,-Including-Active-U-S-Uranium-Mining,-Uranium-and-Mineral-Sand-Sales,-Commercial-U-S-Rare-Earth-Production,-and-Strong-Balance-Sheet
- https://energycapitalpower.com/lotus-signs-3-agreements-to-advance-malawi-uranium-project/
- https://sprottetfs.com/media/6136/sprott-uranium-report-etf-trends-for-2023.pdf
- https://encoreuranium.com/news/encore-energy-provides-5-year-uranium-contracting-strategy-outlook/
- https://discoveryalert.com.au/news/uranium-market-dynamics-2025-prices-supply-chain/
- https://sprott.com/insights/uranium-markets-trumped-by-uncertainty/
- https://**promotion blocked**.com.au/worlds-largest-uranium-miner-kazatomprom-cuts-2025-production-guidance/
- https://sprott.com/insights/supply-demand-gap-ignites-uranium-rally/
- https://www.cruxinvestor.com/posts/uranium-the-contrarian-commodity-set-to-deliver-multi-fold-returns
- https://thundersaidenergy.com/downloads/global-uranium-supply-demand/
- https://world-nuclear.org/information-library/nuclear-fuel-cycle/uranium-resources/uranium-markets
- https://www.mining.com/web/russia-temporarily-limits-nuclear-fuel-shipments-to-us/
- https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1HkXbo0paPc
- https://www.cruxinvestor.com/posts/uraniums-exploration-drought-creates-fragile-supply-issues-production-delays-time-to-load-up
- https://www.world-nuclear-news.org/Articles/Cameco-increases-uranium-purchases-to-meet-contrac
- https://www.streetwisereports.com/article/2025/03/06/uranium-tariff-threats-and-supply-shortfalls-reshape-market-outlook.html
- https://sprott.com/insights/uranium-outlook-for-2025/
- https://company-announcements.copyright link/asx/pen/6d56442f-258c-11f0-aa4b-225c26a5390c.pdf
- https://discoveryalert.com.au/news/uranium-production-challenges-2025/
- https://navoiyuran.uz/en/an-agreement-was-signed-on-the-acceleration-of-uranium-mining-at-the-jongeldi-deposit/
- https://www.cruxinvestor.com/posts/uranium-market-faces-structural-supply-challenges-despite-growing-nuclear-demand
- https://mining.com.au/uraniums-turbulent-year-sets-stage-for-promising-2025/
- https://investingnews.com/uranium-forecast/
Answer from Perplexity: pplx.ai/share
"
Deferrals and pauses to Deep Yellow and Bannerman showed discipline several others have not.
Who will be caught trying to buy on the spot price to supply contracts signed with out that consideration of the prices they will need to pay to meet the contracts. Pens qtrly stated "CY2025 production guidance under revision, with an expected downgrade to production in CY2025, CY2026 and CY2027 "
20 April 2009
I feel for the shareholders! (shares are suspended)
I think this somes up the current place well "Bannerman Executive Chairman, Brandon Munro, commented:
“Bannerman’s staged development of the Etango Project progressed well during the quarter, with the
primary crusher site fully excavated, construction water and power infrastructure operational, and
manufacture of the long-lead tertiary crusher advancing ahead of planned delivery. These activities are
proceeding in parallel with financing and offtake marketing workstreams.
“The current dislocation between long-term fundamentals and current trading conditions in the global
uranium market is a sharp one. As a result, and despite being at a highly advanced stage with respect
to all key workstreams, we are not seeing the appropriate market conditions to warrant finalising offtake
and financing arrangements with respect to development of Etango." 02938880.pdf
Our place in 2030 supply is perfect for the declining output and significant delays in finding and developing any new mine.
Looking at the prices now may make NEXGEN the perfect take over target to add supply to meet contract obligations for a few majors we can think of.
Have a great day all
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