next 6 months

Looking forward there are some possible scenarios I see playing out for the next 6 months.

Firstly on the Micro FGE level:
- Potential to win a large Roy Hill Contract
- Profit guidance and mid year results, analysts forecasts for 35-40c 2nd half, Revenue between $413-$513 Million
- New CEO commences and new management team in place
- Might hear something out of new CEO on growth plans
- Board significantly weakened now so if CLO are ever going to bid might be soon at these lowered prices
- It was interesting they exercised the options they got from the directors immediately and at prices higher than could be achieved on market
- CLO majority holder is trying to sell their 60% stake in CLO, a change of ownership there could increase support for FGE takeover. At present I believe the CLO majority holder does not support this move.
- Business as usual, order book is strong for 2013, some oil and gas exposure would be nice and a contract out of CTEC

On a Macro level:
- Major concerns exist over the cap ex projects in mining in the next 3-5 years as well as IO in particular
- Appears to be over done and stocks look oversold
- China to ramp up in the second half of 2012
- Europe still a concern that could derails global markets, could potentially depress mining services share prices until this cloud is lifted

Forge look cheap at these levels on a risk reward play, order book more or less secured for 2013 and EPS should rise after the CTEC acquisition and a reduction in capital expenditure. We may see increased dividends going forward. Good results appear to still be rewarded such as LYL and EHL who have held up OK.

Good luck to all holders.