Another example of where I'd love to discuss the bear case, but if we're doing so please bring me analysis that's at a level higher than what I'd expect from a high school student. Let's get specific:
"Remind me again of how many companies have ever mined radioactive mud in Sweden? It's zero, which is same number of companies that have mined radioactive mud anywhere. Haagen has zero value, in fact it's a major negative given the time and resources the company is spending on it."
This shows a fundamental misunderstanding of Business 101. Remind me of how many companies have built a quantum computer. It's zero. Remind me when MIT estimates quantum computers will be useful. 2035. Using the above logic, quantum computing companies have zero value.
As for the number of companies that have mined "radioactive mud", I don't know the exact number but it's not zero. Trekkopje has a lower PPM (120) than Haggan:
"Debt funding is a looonnnggggg shot, who wants to lend for a U project in an African jurisdiction that has never mined U? Even if they do get funding think about how high the rate will be to compensate for the risk involved - 20%+ at a minimum."
If this were a high school assignment, the (unfiltered) feedback would be: "So you're saying Aura is conducting a greenfield project in Mauritania, which is knowledge that's decades old and you probably gleaned from the snippet in the 1st result in your Google search. Please go back and hand this assignmnet in when you've actually done some proper research"
That research might show:
Grove is public about the fact that African risk is something that only specific parties are willing to take on, and that a number of potential funders will be ruled out on that basis. Hence Orimco
Mauritania is covered in the Fraser Institute Annual Survey of Mining Companies:
Sure there is some jurisdictional risk involved but it's only slightly behind Spain in "Investment Attractiveness Index" and ahead of Brazil and New Zealand for "Policy Perception Index"
The government has formed an interministerial committee to help with Tiris:
I'm not going to pretend to be an expert in Mauritanian politics but it seems that when these committees are formed, they're for serious subjects where the government wants to ensure a particular outcome e.g.:
As for your 20% number do you think that's a good or bad outcome in the context of a 2.5 year payback period? If it's bad, what sort of payback period makes 20% a good number for Aura? Obviously at some payback period (e.g. 1 month) 20% annual interest becomes a no-brainer to take. What's your number sloeb? I'd give you the answer but I'm tired of doing your homework. I'm imploring you please give this forum some good analysis at least just this once.
AEE Price at posting:
12.0¢ Sentiment: None Disclosure: Held
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