There’s a bear case to be made for Aura but even so, there are...

There’s a bear case to be made for Aura but even so, there are some sweeping generalisations here that aren’t correct.

“Haagen has zero value, in fact it's a major negative given the time and resources the company is spending on it.”

If we look at just the uranium component, District Metals is a guide for how much the uranium component is worth now. The outcome for the uranium component of Haggan may well be binary i.e. once all is said and done, it will probably be worth nothing or a lot. But that doesn’t mean it’s worth zero now, even if there’s a high chance of failure.

Suppose for example you have two magic dice. You get one roll and get paid $500 million if you roll two sixes, and zero otherwise. You’d really sell that for a nominal amount such as $1? That would be a mistake because those dice are worth millions (more than $10 million by my calculations).

Plus, Haggan isn’t just a uranium project. Even assuming the uranium component is worth zero, there’s still significant value in the mine:

https://auraenergy.com.au/project-portfolio/haggan-polymetallic-project/

Are you arguing that the non-uranium components of Haggan are worth zero? Where’s the evidence for that? Up until recently, Sweden hadn’t opened a mine in a long time. But in June, they opened a gold mine, in the face of many of the some challenges / objections facing Aura e.g.

“The Fäbodtjärn mine has faced criticism from the Swedish Society for Nature Conservation and local residents. They are concerned that valuable natural environments may be damaged and waterways polluted, which in turn could affect individuals’ access to water and fishing in the nearby Vindel River.”

Reference:

https://tavex.se/en/new-gold-mine-in-sweden-with-gold-worth-1-billion/

As for Tiris, getting into production isn’t the only way for the company to realise value. M&A is another possible option and Grove / Somlyay have already run that exact same playbook at Chesser.

It was done at quite a big discount to NPV:

https://www.investi.com.au/api/announcements/chz/66a559e4-8cd.pdf

https://www.aspecthuntley.com.au/asxdata/20230509/pdf/02663983.pdf

But even with a big discount, between Aura and Haggan, there’s enough room to realise a deal that leaves significant upside for any acquirer, while also realising significant value for shareholders.