My expectations for Jublia are not as high. According to Valeant's latest quarterly report (p.34), revenues for Jublia were only US$50 million for the past 4 quarters. 2Q18 revenues have declined 33% from from 2Q17 (US$18 million to US$12 million).
There appears to be a large discrepancy between Valeant's reported revenues for Jublia and the statistics from IQVIA which Acrux used in their recent announcement ($280 million pa.).
From the recent patent litigation cases arising in the district courts regarding a Jublia generic, it's also unlikely Acrux will be the only first-to-file. As such, I expect they will end up with a small piece of a diminishing pie.
On the whole, I remain positive with their outlook. Keep in mind, Acrux are actively moving away from being a one-trick pony. So I see Jublia as adding a smallish revenue stream along with many other generics over the coming years.
Regarding the litigation process, based on similar district court cases for generics, a 3-9 month timeline appears the range. So it could be some wait yet.
ACR Price at posting:
23.5¢ Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
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