The court decision is in the lap of the gods.... I will not...

The court decision is in the lap of the gods.... I will not speculate as to the chances of success.

However, what we can take a better stab at is the payoff matrix...

The way I read the contingent liabilities, and the underwriting of those by Lloyd's, the liabilities if IPR lose is as follows:

EUR 1.542m
EUR 0.537m
EUR 0.970m

Total EUR 3.049m, or A$5.38m (at AUD/EUR 0.5668)


So the total downside is only a little over A$5m, which could then be offset against future profits, reducing its after-tax effect to only A$3.77m.

Were this to happen, IPR IS STILL TRADING WELL ABOVE ITS CASH POSITION. But future profits from this action are unlikely or none.

However, if they WIN, the claim is D125m! Even if a fraction of this were ever to be received, the payoff matrix is hugely in favour of IPR. And IPR has decided to play the long game and chase this one. THEY obviously think they are on firm ground...

For me, it is well and truly worth the risk. A potential payout in the tens of millions, versus a known contingent liability of only A$5.38 (A$3.77 tax adjusted loss).

As I have consistently said on this forum, the hugely discounted price ASSUMES IPR WILL LOSE ALL CASES.

Any wins, and the share gets re-rated massively.

disclosure: 1,000,000 shares.