For me HDR is worth the risk - and of course, hopefully...

For me HDR is worth the risk - and of course, hopefully Mauritania will be more stable as a result of the failed coup attempt.

In pricing HDR I believe that to an extent the market has missed the mark on last year's drilling which was a great success - ie. Banda likely to be about the size of another Chinguetti. If the JV keeps finding just one Ching-size field, say 100-125 mmbo each year, I'll be very happy indeed! This year I give Tevet a good chance of coming in, further adding to the Ching-Banda area and commercial potential.

I'll probably hold my shares for Tevet, and the Banda appraisals, if that's what's proposed, and sell down a portion prior to the drilling in Lead 5 (and a possible placement meanwhile). Although Lead 5 looks riskier than Tevet, Agip and WPL wouldn't keep spending $millions on cretaceous plays unless they've got some very good data to justify it - and of course as they learn more every time they drill the risks should be correspondingly lower. If Lead 5 hits oil, then HDR will really take off.

NB the above-mentioned fields are quite similar in size to WPLs Enfield oil field off the NW shelf, of about 145mmbo - which WPL seem happy likely to budget about $1.5 billon to develop. Mauritania is shaping up to be many times Enfield in reserves...