next flow rate announcement

I'm not an expert trader or a full bottle on O&G but I have been doing my research and I like to think that I'm level headed. After following the threads on SSN recently, I thought I may be able to help people avoid making some mistakes tht I have, not so long ago made myself. I'm not trying to sway people one way or the other, but rather encourage them to take a step back and not make rash decisions that they will regret.

There's been a varying degree of expectation surrounding this well and I guess at the extreme end some had hoped for a flow rate of 2500 - 5000 BOEPD. Would have been great but there was a very small chance of this happening.

This build up of expectations of course benefits experienced day traders etc. The reality is that people looking at selling now, should ask themselves whether this is the price that you would like to receive for your shares. We have had a retracement of .5-.6c from the high of 4c. I don't believe that this stock will move far below what it currently stands at and this is evidenced by the fact that there seems to be solid buy orders between 3.2 and 3.4c. I can't remember when SSN said they will announce the final flow rate but I expect it to be possibly at the lower end of 1000-1500 BOEPD. My reasoning is thus: as the days go on, oil cut increases but flow decreases until it stabiises. Many posters, when trying to calculate the final flow rate just did the maths based on the cut increasing from 40% to 70%, not accounting for decreased flow.

If the flow rate remains around 1100 BOEPD, then we may see a drop in SP to 3.2 c maybe 3.1 (but 3.1 is not very likely IMO) but it will last no more than a couple of days I beleive.

Once the final rate is announced, what happens happens, traders take profits, inexperienced traders panic and frustratingly sell their shares at the price they bought it, just below or just above (pocketing a .1 or .2c profit or loss), while others who look a month into the future, will start accumulating because after the reactions from this announcement, investors and traders alike will begin looking to the next well.

And if you think about it, if you bought in, hoping for a 2000 flow rate, then if you can hold on for a month when the next well is drilled, assuming it is not dry (and all things considered I would be very very surprised if it is) performs the same as GENE, you will have a combined flow rate of 2000-3000 BOEPD. Not only that, SSN at this point has one 30% owned well (Gene) that is flowing. This is guaranteed money for the company whether the flow is 1000 or 2000. With Gary on board in a month, SSN will have 2 wells that will be making money for the company.

I realise that I am making a few assumptions on Gary, but I think most people beleive that it will be similar in nature to this one. It may even be better.

So the way I see SSN is that, as investors, we are not gampling on whether or not they will oil, as they have already proven that. Now its just a matter of waiting to see how many of the Bakken wells will make money for them. There does seem to be quite a lot of upside for the company, not just long term, but in the near months.

So getting back to my point, for those unsure whether or not to sell, if you're comfortable selling at 3.4 or 3.5c, then by all means, however it is my opinion that once the dust settles, the SP will be making its way back up to 4 even before Gary is drilled, purely on recent events and the anticipation of Gary.

Only my thoughts, not recommendations, but as this is a forum, what the hell I may as well share them.