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mosteph, as to WHY...

The market evidently expects some kind of deterioration in the performance of CGF relative to last year. Thats self-evident. The current pricing relfects some median of investor expectations of what the CGF securities are worth.

Those profit expectations are based on very limited up to date infromation from the company, and based on the markets generally poor understanding of CGF's business and how to value it - which has been a problem for ten years now.

Furthermore, the sort of "value investors" who are inclined to buy companies which are (relatively) "cheap" at the low points of their cycles, are currently more cautious than usual in respect of the market as a whole, and financial sector companies in particular, for obvious reasons.

Now those reasons you mentioned before, are all valid reasons and are all reasons which other people would have noticed, and they are reasons why CGF is down more than 60%.

However, the argument can be made, that under the present bearish conditions, many stocks tend to be somewhat oversold. Thats how bear markets work. The pessimists are currently outnumbering the optimists. Which means that, all other things being equal, many companies are somewhat oversold rather than undersold.

Therefore the contention that CGF "could" rise to 2.50 or more, is a perfectly reasonable contention on the balance of probabilities and presently known information.