GXY (ASX) Next ship named

Originally posted by Ozyoioi: ↑

Don't panic indeed, there is good potential value here.

However,don't also assume there isn't substantial downside yet as I have now come to realise. Don't sit around hoping that you know better than the market makers on where this is going - there is quite likely information that you are not privy to, that others are. Like it or not, there are those that are much better connected and knowledgeable.

My takeaway,
If you listen to the quarterlies briefings, the analysts are asking the smart questions.
There was a question many quarterlies ago about what would happen if SdV did not get a price acceptable to the board - at the time, board dismissed the 'ridiculous' question and indicated they would have a deal done by the end of the year...everyone knows how that turned out.

There was also a question last year about what would happen if Mt.C Floater Rd approvals took longer than expected and on shutdowns due to YOP - management (I think it was Brian Talbot) stated confidently they only expected a few days of impact - that 'two days' ended up being a long 3+ month period of all sorts of excuses.

At the very latest quarterly briefing, there were very pointed analyst questions/comments about spod delivery timing and what pricing would be paid. At the time, AT was very dismissive of one analyst's observation that GXY was being pushed around on timing by its customers to avail of a lower price.
With PLS' coming out in their usually refreshingly honest way, it's very obvious now that GXY is indeed being pushed around on spod delivery timing. Shows that GXY is not a price setter in these negotiations.

So reading the tea leaves, you can expect 2H to underperform on deliveries - spod processors have their pick of spod suppliers and will milk this for all it's worth. GXY renegotiated a price reset for 2H so the outstanding spod will be sold at lower prices of probably $550-$650 USD to the extent that they can find a buyer for all of it. Remember that this will be a time when AJM, PLS, A40, MIN are all hitting their straps and producing at target production. Where is all this spod going to go, expect to sit at export/import terminals? What will it do to spod prices?

2H 2019 is looking pretty bad which is why I think we will continue to go down for the rest of 2019...time to protect capital until things are more clear I think.

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Are you assuming demand for battery grade will remain constant? Did you watch that Proactive Investor clip that Groovemarda put up today?