JML 0.00% 75.5¢ jabiru metals limited

Obviously someone still looking to get out, maybe I jumped the...

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    Obviously someone still looking to get out, maybe I jumped the gun at 28c...lol.

    Just had a reread of this from Pattersons Weekly report a month or so back when JML was trading at 44c. Suggests Zinc not the main driver of earnings. Copper price looks to be the key.

    Unless there is something very wrong operationally that we're not aware of yet it looks oversold.

    INVESTMENT COMMENT
    JML’s Jaguar mine is operating at BFS (Bankable Feasibility
    Study) levels and at current commodity prices expects more
    revenue from copper and silver than zinc in FY09. Two diamond
    drill rigs will be following up near mine targets at Jaguar from
    September while resource confirmation drilling at Benambra is
    underway and another rig will arrive in September. With 4 drill rigs
    operating, newsflow will be regular on the mine life extension front.
    Despite the fall in the zinc price JML remains one of the lowest cost
    producers with copper and silver production covering all site costs.
    For FY09 we forecast a $32m FY09 NPAT putting JML on a PE of
    7.0 times FY09. With strong and growing leverage to copper we
    retain our BUY.
    Copper pays for zinc production: Now that recoveries are at
    BFS levels, high copper prices and an even stronger outlook and
    copper grades we forecast zinc cash costs for FY09 of US$0.08/
    lb.
    Greater Copper leverage than Zinc: Given the strong copper
    price and growing copper production from Jaguar and later
    Benambra JML now has greater leverage to copper than zinc. A
    10% increase the copper price increases our DCF valuation by
    20cps or 18% while a 10% increase in the zinc price lifts it 3cps
    or 3%.
    Benambra: Resource confirmation drilling is underway. We believe
    the market is currently subscribing zero value to the Benambra
    deposit however we believe with combined resource expected to
    be 12.3mt at 2.3% copper, 4.7% zinc, 38g/t silver and 1.0g/t gold,
    Benambra will demand 50% of JML’s value within 12 months. First
    assay results are expected to begin filtering back within 4 weeks and
    the first step towards realising its value is confirming the resource
    which remains on track for CY end. Extensive work has been carried
    out on the Wilga and Currawong orebodies significantly de-risking
    all pre-production activities ahead of FY09 feasibility studies, FY10
    construction and late FY11 commissioning.
    Recent $50m equity raising @ $0.80/share: Once Palmary’s
    27% is approved by FIRB (we don’t expect any problems given
    Palmary is only maintaining its position not increasing) JML’s
    net cash position is circa $9M following the proceeds from the
    placement. The Jaguar operation has been cashflow positive
    since the end of May and first debt repayments are not required
    for 12 months
 
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