the problem is that the update seems vague, yes they’re on track...

the problem is that the update seems vague, yes they’re on track (ish) with shipping but we don’t know which quarter deliveries are being booked and that has implications for cashflow and the potential need for capital. Likely they’ll be fine for this quarter and with lower expenses next should be more comfortable.

However, with prices for spod sinking firmly to the floor of offtake agreements and partners with prior form rescinding on their contracts, together with production now seeming to be ahead of delivery things are getting very tight, increasing anxiety re what happens when the debt falls due and/or ability to service it and turn a profit which in turn makes AJM vulnerable to the whims of entities outside their control.

my expectations are firmly for another underwhelming quarter with numbers looking ugly and explained away as ‘one-off’ or guidance for things suddenly improving/turning the corner.

Given consistent failure to meet prior guidance be it due to market or internal misses I’m no longer going to put money at risk for ‘Jam Tomorrow’. They need results much closer to guidance, uncertainty re debt addressed (even a long term debt on similar terms without covenants/deadlines would be preferable)
and spodumene price recovery - then huge gains could be made, risk just too high for my appetite, others may be made of sterner stuff...