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No charts posted of yet so I will.
Just quickly, it obviously doesn't look pretty. Joining the dots it looks like a lot of supply entered after the BMM PO and it was about the same volume as the 90m shares issued for the con note on 5/1. From a pure TA standpoint this created "weakness in the background" and since then there hasn't really been and significant signs of strength to reverse that. Now today could be many things and tomorrow will help to unravel the story.
Selling could continue until it finds support at the old accumulation range or it could even fall further. We will have to wait and see. I will be watching the amount of volume if it continues. If it capitulates it could get nasty
A less likely scenario is it closes higher (it will need to regain the 2.9c support line IMO) then it will look better (today may have contained hidden buying) . If so this could be seen as a shakeout over 2 bars or a 2 bar reversal. Still, V shaped recoveries are rare and it would probably want to come back and test this HV (compared to month average etc) from today to make sure there is no remaining supply.
Personally I am on the sidelines now. Too many uncertainties with the SP and also a few occasions of over promising and under delivering. They have $4.4m in cash as far as im aware and an expected burn of $1.8m this Q. So if they were to lose the court case (-$2.5m) then they would have $0 at the end of June and need to raise $$ somehow. At nameplate capacity the plant "could potentially" produce 200ktpa at about $40 profit per tonne so $8mpa which is about the annual burn rate. So I see a raise pretty likely and that's why i think the SP is in a downtrend. All my own opinion and analysis.
Given the company is in such a tight financial position think it was really kind and generous of them to lend the management almost $1m to convert their 0.96c oppies so that they didn't go to waste.
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[ATTACH] No charts posted of yet so I will. Just quickly, it...
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