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FreeYourself

681 Posts.

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18/05/17

12:59

Post #: 24768702
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Originally posted by FreeYourself ↑

Considering almost everyone invests their capital with the intention of making a profit (compared to out of genuine support for a company or business) then I would think that nothing is more important than the valuation of the company and thus your shares.

Correct me if im wrong but at nameplate capacity of 200ktpa at say $65/t = $13m Gross revenue. What is net income then? They are burning almost $8m a year now and that is without 3 shifts running around the clock. So say $5m. So on a PE of 10 that is a MC of $50m (which is 2c SP).

However.....that is of course based on them being at full production, which they are not. And it seems that there have been alot more delays than anticipated so the market as a whole is revising its forward projection and risk is increasing. There is also the fact that they are getting extremely low on cash.

When it comes to specs they often overshoot fair value just as NSL has done and then reality sets in (mostly during the "development" stage - pre revenue).

IMO its irrational to base investment decisions on a spec on LT FA when the MC already exceeds fair value for that analysis.

"Nothing has really changed, I'm in for the LT, and still in green.".....perhaps thats the problem, nothing has changed. Or another way to look at it is alot has changed. Its not exactly been the smooth sail we hoped for has it.

It was at 5c in Nov 2015 because it was supposed to be cash flow positive in Q4 2016. Its now almost 6 months on and NSL is almost out of cash and far from cash flow positive.

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Oh I made a mistake above.......that net income doesn't include tax

NSL Price at posting: 2.6¢ Sentiment: None Disclosure: Not Held
1 Upvote

0 Great analysis

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