My take is that the Jupiter price is at a significant discount...

My take is that the Jupiter price is at a significant discount to what E25 expect to get.

In the updated Euroz analysis they use Fast Markets published 44% CIF price, then normalise to 33% (take 15%), normalise to FOB terms (-39c), then add on E25 premium (for low impurities) (0.65c)

Fast Markets is a paid sub, but copied from a metal bulletins article 14hrs ago;
"But the corresponding index for manganese ore 44% Mn, cif Tianjin, dropped by 2 cents to $4.75 per dmtu on the same day, from $4.77 per dmtu the previous week"

So using the Euroz rationale
$4.75/dmtu
Grade based discount (-15%) = ($0.71)
Normalised CIF to FOB terms = ($0.39)
Low impurities premium = 65c
= $4.30/dmtu

as compared to updated PFS assumption of $4.37 (refer Dec investor presentation slide 15). Therefore "spot" price is not an issue IMO, but for Euroz there is clearly too many unknowns in those pricing assumptions until we start making shipments and prove them up. What gets me is the conservatism is prevalent throughout their entire valuation. I doubt this guy steps foot outside of his house unless he's covered in bubble wrap. 70% risk adjustment factor, pricing discount, cost uplift, high discount rates... its all so so conservative - if you measured any business with the same standard they are probably worthless. Unwind all of that conservatism and we get back to a $4-6 share price, before the HUGE upside of batteries is even factored in.