The scores on the doors. Aside from the inarticulate and...

The scores on the doors. Aside from the inarticulate and erroneous flappers from the stock promotion club who've muddied the waters here and elsewhere (KIS is another example), E25 has been on a relentless 20% slide from the 1st April with far more sell side heft in play. The silent majority, LT investors have all obviously been hanging out for the wet commissioning announcement due on the 1st. Much like the 3 week delayed OMH offtake announcement, Justin oddly set himself a stringent 4 week commissioning target and...fluffed it. Yes, it might have been due to the stringent requirements of ASX announcements but he shot himself in the foot and, like the delayed offtake announcement, decided that radio silence was the better option. Hence the slide. The market hates uncertainty and banks on trust. That particular bubble was pricked by the radio blackout.
Many sharp LT investors would have earmarked the few weeks before actual commissioning as their exit point so as to avoid the technically-challenged orphan period between commissioning and shipment and the arrival of the reality of commodity prices....we have our eyes on the spot price prize even in an opaque market.
Justin (and VW) fortuitously fudged and leap-frogged this typical exit point with the announcement of the manganese-rich cathodes for EV batteries moving forward. Typical exiters at this point in the cycle decided to hang on for another fix. We then had the curve ball of the $35 mill raising...when we apparently didn't need it. LT investors have been wondering whether this was a smart move to exploit the new HPM EV situation (is there an EV manufacturer stalking horse with cash in the background who wants to strike a deal within the next 6 months?) or was it a smart management move to raise when the going is good, finally stop living on a shoestring AND have some cash in hand to overcome near-term speed bumps presented by a wobbly commissioning period and a slump in the manganese spot price?
That's the question I think recent sellers have been asking and consequently realising their gains.
A natural exit point has been artificially delayed and the radio silence has aggravated the selldown when the LT punters realised the next high wasn't coming.
Justin's short-term problem now is the pressure from the recent CR falling so far below the raise price he might face a capitulation death-spiral that black gold twitter posts might not allay - and it's a bitter reality. However, I'm still in because all my battery metal portfolio has been eviscerated over the past few weeks so there's also a macro issue at play. Furthermore, I have a sense that management are striking whilst the manganese is hot, filling the war chest to skate over commodity price and commissioning wobbles (which aren't even relevant until the first shipment) and preparing a flash bang HMPA PFS which might see them exiting via acquisition at the end of this year around $8 rather than $5 a year later.
Management here have been outstanding on the sprint thus far. Question is, are they truly miners and does that actually matter in the medium term? My money's on another flash of brilliance around July and a subsequent SP spike. The question for the LT's is, could this be another Altura or Syrah (spot price crush or oversupply swamping?). The smart money doesn't delay its decision to account for CGT liabilities and wait it out. It sells and moves on.
Nervous nellies, sticky hands, bots and institutions' capping have no place at the table. The ultimate question is, what was that cap raise all about and is there an auto manufacturer lurking in the wings for an HPMA deal? My bet is there is and I've moved my exit point to September and will suck up the short-term pain.