Healthy scepticism doesnt have to be saying there's mostly rubbish posted here by "uprampers", which is a stupid term BTW. If we didn't think there was upside we wouldn't hold.
You say you arent getting excited by stage 2, yet you state it as part of your rationale to buy. Right.
You'd rather focus on the Mn price downside, but you've literally said if it hits all time lows we're stuffed. Enlightening.
Fx has moved out correct, noone here is oblivious to that. I think Mn price has also increased on PFS? Tbh I haven't looked recently as I know nothing has moved enough to influence my opinion on this strong buy, but the PFS is pretty easy to understand and flex the assumptions, if you're worried then crunch the numbers? The company has done a great job in making a lot of great information available to us.
Correct on no PFS for HPM but it's a near term reality, including a PFS this year. You'd be foolish to not consider it as upside but I dont think I've seen anyone put pie in the sky valuations on this (or any other part of the business). If any aspect of the business needs analysis from those who understand it, it is this. This is where the full potential lies.
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