Interesting reading Tony. Here's my take on it FWIW, whilst we await our own critical results.
Fourteen days in December will dictate the outlook of global markets as Britain prepares to go to war.
War?? They may as well declare a war on dandruff.
ECB ; Will continue business as usual, negative interest rates and more printing, sorry, easing.
OPEC ; Business as usual {as far as the Saudis are concerned}. Not enough pain inflicted yet,
not by a long shot.
THE FED : Will raise rates, at the wrong time and for all the wrong reasons.
The Draghi plan mobilized the ECB as lender of last resort and led to a spectacular fall in borrowing costs across the EMU periphery, buying nine months of financial calm .
9 months of financial calm........and NO growth. Refer to Japan et al. Some plan.
Hounded by deflation in the eurozone area........
Exactly right and at the kernel of the issue, worldwide for that matter. The decision to raise
rates in the US will light a fire under deflation and continue a world of pain for hard commodities.
Capital has already been moving to the US in the last few years, away from Europe, Japan &
Emerging markets at LOW interest rates in the US as it was. A matter of being the least ugly
duckling in the group above and perceived as a safe haven from the aforementioned basket
cases. With an even slightly higher return, there's only way up for the US dollar and only one
way down for commodities.
The group will assemble on Friday December 4 to decide their production levels, and in effect set the direction of oil prices for the year ahead, and perhaps a generation.
No, not a generation. The move away from fossil fuels will achieve that, probably in the next
generation. I see a "window" for oil of maybe that long. Coal will be dead before that. I had
thought maybe 40 years. It seems these things gather momentum and although the wheels
have turned very slowly the last 20 years, I see an acceleration away from fossil fuels over the
next 20, exponentially v the previous 20. If the corrupt, morally bankrupt King of Saud think
they have problems with their unemployed youth now, wait another generation.
I contend the only saving grace for commodities {and more to the point, oil in our case}
will be the US reverting to the mean and joining the currency wars in an attempt to gain a
share of an ever decreasing pie. If that happens then it will have a cost push effect on
hard commodities. The only alternative remedy would be a return to trend economic growth
in the world over the next year or 2. Anyone see that happening after 7 years of anemia?
The return to money printing will not take a generation. Maybe a year from now or into 2017,
that would suit FAR just fine......assuming we have what we think we have and can stay in the
game until then.
Truth be told, the central bankers have little idea of how world markets will respond during the coming two weeks.
No truer words spoken..
GLTAH
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