TDF...
CBA actually increased their holdings to the tune of 701,139 shares...they did not decrease them!
You are right however...down side is half of current price, whilst upside is 10x current price...probably not a bad profit/reward scenario?
As for the apparent lack of interest, I suspect it might come down to the relatively shallow nature of these prospects...the drilling times are so short, it really doesn't allow for the usual rally and sell-off prior to results.
The bottom line is it appears the market is prepared to wait for a confirmed strike before commiting, even if it means paying higher prices.
Cheers!
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