harley's extract :
For illustration purposes, the Creole lead is estimated to have mean potential for
5.4 billion barrels of oil in place. If we assume 40% recovery and $15 per barrel
value, then this implies upside potential in the case of a discovery (WHN 30%
working interest post farmout) of 612cps or 170 times return on the current share
price. Risking this at 8.5%, the average probability of success estimated by ISIS,
would imply risked value of 44cps (vs our conservative estimate of 6cps).
Farm-In
next week price target, page-36
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