It looks as though we'll see 230kt shipped for the quarter (thanks nightflyer, dfs1) and in the upper end of FY25 guidance (thanks Narly, above). Production cost shouldn't surprise and realised price shouldn't matter as it's going up anyway. Break even would be good enough for the lowest quarter of the cycle and even a small profit would be a big positive.
Sitting at around a quarter of its all time high value, I think many would feel assured of more upside than down and 50-100% seems very reasonable, even if the price never reaches Y600,000 this time around, which it surely won't. Increasing output and improved efficiency go beyond the back of my envelope but will make the numbers better and no worse.
Short answer on SP next week is "f#ck knows" but hard evidence of sales volume, pricing and and efficiency will risk off any producer, encourage buyers and discourage shorting. The rabbit out of my hat says peaks of $2.20-2.40 and a rising baseline above $2 in August.
PLS Price at posting:
$1.93 Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
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