there is some slight logic to my prediction.in the half year...

there is some slight logic to my prediction.

in the half year accounts the PSD directors declared their hand around the value of their IP. They wrote down significantly every product except one - medidur . . . whose "estimated recoverable amount" was increased from $31 million to $152 million (at the very high discount rate of 27.5%). You can check this on pg 15 of the half yearly.

Now. . . .my prediction of 47 cents by end of next week is predicated on the following:

a) the Big Pharma deal being announced by the end of the week;
b) The Directors having had a pretty firm inkling of what the deal terms would be at the time when they increased their view of the value of the medidur
c) at 22 cents per share the market having NOT valued the Medidur opportunity
d) The Big Pharma deal demonstrating why the $150 million Medidur valuation was justified, and also resulting in the market applying a lower discount rate to the future cashflows

. . . .I haven't done a detailed study of the impact of options etc on the capitalisation of PSD. . . . but if the deal with Big Pharma prompts the market to wake up and say "wow, there is $150 - 200 million of value in PSD that we were previously not valuing . . . .and it is now close enough to touch, with quite a bit being paid as an upfront payment". . . .well, then I could see it getting to to about 47 cents.

any other views?