I honestly do hope to I am incorrect, and want all of us to find the gold at the end of the rainbow.
However, I also think I should be a bit more clear with my reasoning behind my hard-line opinion.
I've been in OBJ for 10 years or more, I've lost count tbh. I watched this site and every "watch this space" during that entire time. I was there when ABDM first started to join the dots, all the positives that could be seen by blind Freddy. I was there through the 3m Spike, the positive results and publications, I was there watching through the manual tooth brush failure, the ongoing court case, the directors selling some shares, all the way to today, (I remember Mak being there aswell).
No I don't post much, never have, I don't see huge value in it. I have moved countries in that time, hence This HC account isn't my original, which is long dead and unavailable to me. That hasn't stopped me reading almost every post however, nor ASX release nor company publication.
I don't believe I have ever seen anything from the company that led me to think "hmmm, im being scammed"... I may have disagreed in some paths, and been concerned on others, and my frustration is of course at an all time high - but never enough to think the company was in trouble.
The reasons why I now see that as an "even odds possibility" are based on history:
If we Go back 10 Years, the company was in R&D mode, so the market was very forgiving, and there was huge promise for OBJ's future. Without much information however, people jumped to wild speculation, and may people got burned by spike after spike on the SP, beginning a cycle of eroding confidence from investors. Each year we saw "This is our year", Road Shows, great announcements, partnerships, agreements, licences and more. I watched as more investors and traders get burnt on more spikes... each time saying "next year is the year...."
Now bear with me....
By 2013, I was seeing the now regular posts in January of of "This is our year", Followed by Road Shows, followed by great announcements, partnerships, agreements, licences and more. More investors and traders get burnt on more spikes... ok "next year is the year...."
By 2014, Now things have to be better..... January again - "This is our year", Followed by Road Shows, followed by great announcements, partnerships, agreements, licences and more. Again, mre investors and traders get burnt again on more and more spikes... ok "next year is definitely going to be our year"
By 2015, Has to be a great year this year..... -"This is our year", Followed by Road Shows, followed by great announcements, partnerships, agreements, licences and more. Yet more investors and traders get burnt again and again on more and more spikes.... "damn, ok well one more year...."
...You can fill in the gaps here, its a fairly obvious pattern in 2016 and 2017
By 2018, Once again I'm seeing posts of "This is our year". They are good strong, legitimate, well researched, valid and good reasoning/logic posts.... but so were those in 2017,2016,2015,2014,2013 and on and on..... Whats so different now?
I expect the same this year - Road Shows, by great announcements, partnerships, agreements, licences and more to follow... I see posts of "This year is different!!", "This year is our year!!!"....uh huh.... really... 10 years of watching this has jaded me from being enthusiastic, let alone agreeing on that sorry.
So do I dare expect that by dec 2018 , we will be once again be "Ok next year is our year"? ...can i expect the the normal yearly talk of board changes when it doesn't work out?
...can i expect the the normal yearly talk of "wait for this.. " and "wait for that..." when it still doesn't work out?
Should I just compile my 2018 "Angry questions regarding 2018's lack of results " for the AGM now and send them in advance to the board?
, .... when is our year? 2020? 2025? 2040?
Its a repeating pattern that hasn't been broken, and year after year we get nowhere, with no evidence to suggest this year is any better than it was years ago. Nothing has broken the cycle. Investors notice that kind of thing. When I say investors, I really mean Anyone and everyone that the company needs to continue. From small home traders, to the larger investors, lenders, suppliers, prospective clients and more. They all see a long term pattern of unfilled promises, a possibility of a dead end future, and apply heavy caution to vested involvement. - hence we are at 3.8c SP, still in decline, and without end.
I see investor confidence at rock bottom levels, and I believe that in a worst case scenario(which is growing in probability every day), one more big hit to investors confidence will break the camels back. There simply cant be anything left for OBJ to stand on credibility wise. It will never get that market confidence back in the time it would take for the company to repair the damage. The SP will go into a free fall, and 3.5c will be a legendary high in hindsight - I see this year as presenting multiple opportunities for that big hit, worst case sceerio to happen if OBJ dont manage things accordingly.
OBJ have to start managing investor confidence to avoid the end game. Its something they have never applied any real effort to, and hence the market has punished them for it, and could even finish them off.
I also think I'm speaking for a lot of people who don't post, and a lot of people who want to invest in OBJ, but are in the "Just, hold off investing for now, wait and see" phase. It cant continue, and i see this year as either the fabled "OUR YEAR", or the "bail, bail, BAIL!!! dont touch it with a 50ft pole" year.
Expand
(20min delay)