nfe good buy , page-4

I've been doing some homework, but to no real avail. There is a mystery which is yet to unfold.

Dalnor Assets Ltd has managed to assemble a stake of around 16% (as at 23/5) with fairly lumpy transactions beginning around December 2012. Best cost estimate is around $32M all up. Absolutely no idea who it is ... Prof Google most unhelpful

IOOF have simultaneously amassed a stake of around 8.73% ... again per last announcement 23/5.

All transactions identified as 'on market' but they must have been some market other than the ASX. eg supposedly two tranches of 5m shares 23/5 - 1 to Dalnor, 1 to IOOF.

Somebody is offloading in a controlled manner... best guess is that it is Tschudi. Tschudi is a 4th generation private family company so no real commercial data around. Basically a shipping company who I suspect like all of Europe is not doing so well.

So what? A major shareholder is cashing in ... the company's balance sheet is unaffected and I doubt Tscudi was providing any gratuitous services. They were the shippers before and presumably will still be the shippers! Taking out business acumen, country networks and associations, financial markets credibility, customer associations ... that IMO would be heavy on the price...

If i'm right then, price is heavy because:
1. soggy share markets anyway;
2. share registry uncertainty ... who is leaving, why and what implications? Who is Dalnor ... friend or foe?
3. need to push back original debt undertakings. Recent disruption not helpful in term sof cash generation but if you believe Euroz March 13 (http://www.google.com.au/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=web&cd=1&ved=0CCwQFjAA&url=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.euroz.com.au%2Ffiles%2Fresearch%2F4552%2FNFE_RQ_Mar13.pdf&ei=DaivUfDHIc2QkQX46YHwCQ&usg=AFQjCNHXB_tRS_ADHXVSmNVsPQvuczsjkQ&sig2=MG_vHF6dTTyESDvVWC6aLA&bvm=bv.47380653,d.dGI&cad=rja), CY2013 EBITDA ~ $100M should go a long way to some reasonable cash generation.
4. Management not acheiving stated goals. Most unlikley they will acheive cost reduction targets and the recent outage supposedly discounted the qtr target by around 100kt .. not a tidy look IMO
5. Soft IO pricing ... although that is not a new phenomena this year ... consistent with Dec 2012 so not a recent change


I'm holding and whilst the Euroz $0.80/share valuation would be more than welcome, today I'd be happy with a 0 movement... even NTA @ $0.55/share would be a great outcome !

Let's see.