There's only a handful of competitor metaverse's (at this point...

There's only a handful of competitor metaverse's (at this point in time) so we stand a reasonable chance, but the longer it takes to launch AND have fully-developed plots (which might take several years), the more chance that one of the others might pull away from the chasing pack. Alternatively, TSB could be the leader for a few years whilst blockchain gaming remains niche (e.g. generating tens of $m revenue), but could be overtaken by a new metaverse with AR/VR capabilities or some other killer appeal just at the stage when the industry begins to attract the masses.

Not all metaverse's will be direct competitors and some might even be complimentary. Several could thrive, but let's not kid ourselves: Decentraland is far too similar to TSB - there's only room for one.

Fortnite managed to get 12 million players to "attend" Travis Scott’s April 2020 concert. Clearly a metaverse won't get this type of participation in the immediate future, but this is the prize on offer. By 2030, I wouldn't be surprised to see 50 million + users attend a concert in the metaverse. It's a long shot that TSB will ever host events of such size, but that's the opportunity available. It's there for the taking, but competition will be fierce. Maybe this is where Animoca's web of partnerships and investments will all converge to propel TSB to number 1.

The top spot will ultimately go to the one that offers the best experiences, social interactions and fun activities. The South China Morning Post announcement is a pretty lame anchor estate. I'm not suggesting that cultural experiences don't have a role in TSB, but from a commercial perspective they don't offer mass market appeal.

How quickly can TSB onboard 1m users, will they actively use the platform and will they stick around? Most of TSB's partners appear to be doing similar things with Decentraland, so it's clear that most people are hedging their bets.

A key risk is that the metaverse's of today are far too early:

By size, Decentraland is more of a commune — as of July, just a few hundred people are logged in at a time, down from a March peak in the low thousands — made up of user-generated NFTs. Its creators have described the platform less as a place than as infrastructure upon which to build a place. (Decentraland’s currency and land contracts run on the Ethereum blockchain.)Denizens of Decentraland are constantly creating scenes and experiences for other users, like concerts and art exhibits. There are casinos where you can gamble in MANA, with croupiers who are paid in MANA to show up for work. The sense that Decentraland is a work in progress pervades the sparsely populated grid of half-developed plots and themed zones. Between events, users are mostly left to wander and wonder: What now?
https://www.nytimes.com/2021/07/10/style/metaverse-virtual-worlds.html