I appreciate the various remarks and views around the valuation...

I appreciate the various remarks and views around the valuation for NHC. Apart from the short term issues of weather and energy dislocations due to russia, what i would like to know is who has access to the 10 yr average coal price forecast for typical newcastle thermal coal grade? I know mckenzie are leading forecasters in that space but no doubt macquarie and GS and others have a number in their models for 10yr discounted cash flow that lands them in the 3.30 to 4.00 price target which i gathered from earlier posts.

I guess if you look at history as a guide the usd400 current price is way over historical average so over the next 10yrs should normalise - but to what level? it seems to me that costs are usually in relatively tight range as are production volumes (if we leave out the qld approval uncertainty and focus on nsw ops) and FX can play a role but its the coal price that has most leverage to the earnings. So what should the next 10yr ave be? USD150??