NHC Projected Half Yearly Dividend, page-8

Yes, $1b cash and equivalents at end of HY23 after paying FY22 final divi (56c totaling $490m) and FY22 tax.
And they made ~$1b in EBITDA for the HY23.

I am no expert, but attempted to determine what claims are on that cash:
- purchase of remaining Con Notes = ~$300m (from digging through various ASX Con Note announcements and the recent quarterly).
- share buy backs had totalled $30m but were paused, so are insignificant.
- FY23 tax (~$350m for the 1HY?) Probably only a fraction gets paid before FY23 end.
- NA3 startup was indicated to be between $150m and $300m (from memory). I assume this will be phased over the next year or so, therefore call it $50m for the HY23.

At recent quarterly NHC said
- "We continue to maintain a heavily sold forward sales book. "
and in FY22 annual report they had about 30% (from memory) of sales sold forward >12 months at US$405 per ton.
Milner presented recently (when was ~US$250) and said was surprised NEWC had stayed up so high for so long which suggests they would have been locking in that +US$350 to Kingdom come.
So NHC realised sales prices should not be dropping as fast as the futures suggest.

Therefore can expect another $1b EBITDA for 2HY with no Con Note claims.

Therefore IMHO they could probably pay $500m divi's for each of 1HY and 2HY which is similar to the previous 56c (neglecting the benefit that some have been bought back).

I see consensus forecasts has dps at 108c for the FY which is in the same ballbark. (A few months ago it was 140c)

Like I said, I am no expert and would welcome one to pick this apart to show me where I have erred.

AIMHO