Hey Winner1day. The source was “Simply Wall St”. I was just wondering what peoples bullishness was based on, given that the public analysts predictions weren’t that great.
I was trying to get a feel on how positive people were on the share buy back (there are actually more shares at end of FY23) and how much of a detriment to earnings coal prices are going to be. (obviously considerably lower)
Regarding output yep we are meant to get to 15mil tonnes but as you said that will take a couple of years. Im trying to get a feel for longer term, lets say FY25,26 onwards. My thoughts are we base valuations on $135 per tone or ~$A200. the cost on board was $A113 leaving $87 earnings.
For 2023 we had: 7.6mill tonnes at ($A346 - $A113) $A233 per tonne that gave us $1087mil NPAT.
So for 2025/6: 15 mil tonnes at ($A200 - $A113) $A87 per tonne that would give us roughly $913mil NPAT.
they did 55% payout of NPAT in FY23. so lets say they will do the same later $502mil payout with $845mil shares. giving $0.59 per share. that would be 11.3% based on $5.23 share price.
Anyone have other thoughts? Why are analysts so low. what am i missing. (I am probably missing something. new to coal, new to commodities)
NHC Price at posting:
$5.23 Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Not Held
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