From metal.com.....28/03/2022
NPI: The SMM average price of 8-12% high-grade NPI stood at 1,635 yuan/mtu (ex-works, including tax) on Friday March 25, up 10 yuan/mtu from a week earlier, and the average price of Indonesia NPI stood at 1,647.5 yuan/mtu (including tax, delivery to ports), 10 yuan/mtu higher than a week earlier. The traded price with mainstream steel mills was 1,630 yuan/mtu (arrival at the factory, including tax). At the time when nickel prices fluctuated wildly, the market reservoir would cast a certain influence on the NPI prices. In the later period, nickel futures surged again, and the market quotation returned to a high level. On the demand side, although the spot prices of stainless steel moved up following the futures prices, the downstream transaction was less than expected. Besides, due to the influence of the COVID-19, the profit margin of steel mills could hardly realise, so they were cautious about high-priced raw materials. Moreover, nickel prices fluctuated abnormally, so the steel mills held a wait-and-see attitude to avoid the cost risk. On the supply side, quotes of NPI plants and traders were still high, which was supported by the gap between supply and demand and the low inventory in steel mills. What’s more, the spread between pure nickel and NPI was large, and upstream held firm to the prices. In addition, the cost of NPI plants was supported by high nickel ore prices and the higher electricity bill. And due to the COVID-19, the transportation cost of NPI increased. Therefore, NIP prices are unlikely to fall. It is expected that the prices of NPI will remain at 1,610-1,680 yuan/mtu (ex-factory, including tax).
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Conclusion Nic should be able to sell at $25000/t going forward.
This is $6500/t more than last quarter, on 50/50 split cost/profit gives $3250/t extra on bottom line to more than $9000/t.
Lets see....
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