We've seen the price drop from $2.00 at their recent August peak to just over $1.10 now, a fall of 45%. The high was before the FDA love-in and publication of all the adverse consequences of what I will call "mis-use" of Axiron and there have been plenty of negative news in the meantime. On a fundamental's basis, sales will really need to have plummeted in the meantime to merit that sort of fall. Development of other products will have to really have stalled too.
Morningstar in Sept, post all the FDA negativity, reckon the FV is $2.00, even with the next LLY milestone payment ($50m) moving to 2016, so the underlying story still has plenty of merit.
The other point of course is that at current SP levels, LLY could pick up the whole company for $200m - and excluding the $50m royalty earmarked for 2016 it would be a net $150m, little more than petty cash for a $70bn company.
So IMHO $1.10 or anywhere near it represents great value!
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- Nice bounce in the Share price in the last few days
Nice bounce in the Share price in the last few days, page-48
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