Tossing a coin has a 50-50 chance of heads or tails coming up. Applying the bizarre logic you have applied to the probability of the timing of AVX announcements based on past frequency of these occurring then in the coin example if you were interested in the chance of a head coming up in the next 2 tosses, and the first one was a tail, then you would argue that there is a 100% of heads coming up on the next spin.
