Orga, have you still not figured it out? 'Rough' or otherwise, your childish maths does not amount to a meaningful calculation of probability. Once again, if you really think you can calculate the probability of an announcement based on past history of announcements, just answer the following question:
If you argue (hard to believe anyone could be so foolish, but anyway...) that a company making 2 announcements for 33/35 (94.2%) of the last 35 months has, by definition, a 94.2% chance of doing the same thing next month, then your logic compels you to argue that if the incidence was 35/35, the probability for the next month would be 100% (a certainty), and if it had never made 2 announcements (0/35) then there is a zero chance it ever would (an impossibility). Do you see how silly that is?
Fair enough if you don't fully understand stats, and I can see how, on the surface, you might initially come up with a number like you did. But why keep coming up with sad, meaningless and unsupportable stats when others (not just me) have explained what's wrong with your logic over and over?
AVX Price at posting:
0.0¢ Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
