nice chart setup, page-20

The implied valuation of the acreage is now about $58k/acre, lower than the price suggested as having been paid by MRO for the sweetspot assets. That makes AUT vulnerable to corporate action even at a 50% mark-up on current prices.

Of course, that all depends on whether you view the POO as artificially low now or artificially high a couple of months ago. If it stays at the current level for any time, some of the more marginal and expensive developments will become uncommercial, capex will be stalled and the poo price swing could become even more vicious when it happens, as it is bound to do some time.

Everyone looks to the Saudis to open up the taps to steady prices but the Saudis are using ever more of their own production to generate power for their desalination plants. They use desalinated water for their agriculture - in the desert! But it provides employment.

Anything can happen in the short term but I'm not too bothered by the outlook.