nice if ago was $30, page-16

"Isnt it further dependent on Atlas not issuing more shares and not diluting shareholders. Personally I would be happy to take $7psh anytime between now and December 2012."

Would be surprised to see much more dilution (if any), other than for a corporate deal (takeover). At 500KT per month, AGO should be spitting out operating cashflow of $50M per month (assuming margin of $100 per tonne). This should be more than adequate for planned capex. And this figure will grow as production ramps up to 12mt per annum in FY13 - 1mt per month.

If AGO needs funding for its share of something bigger, such as rail or contribution towards funding for Ridley post a deal, debt funding could/should be considered. With a proven business model and cashflow generation, AGO would be confident in its ability to service debt. While debt markets may not be as liquid as they have been, AGO has a strong business case that would be attractive (mini FMG). Some may not like the sound of taking on debt, and AGO itself plays up its no debt position, but if managed properly it should be very low risk and would avoid any major dilution. "Lazy balance" sheet springs to mind, a fave phase in the corporate world.

I have also moved into cash of late, now sitting at 70%. Global situation is dire, Europe is in the bogger. The Euro must of seemed like a good idea at the time! GFC has brought years of reckless govt and private spending to account, with large scale transfer of debt from private to public hands. Seems we are at the pointy end now? Have reduced my long-term AGO holdings to book profits (was tough to do, been sitting on a core holding since 2005) - felt like a divorce!

Still got a decent holding, would like to hold for the upside but see how global markets hold up. I am very confident that AGO will be multiples of its current share price in 2 to 3 years time, but there is significant downside risk at present. You only have to look at the crazy 40c GFC levels to be reminded of this.

Trading of late does seem very controlled, interested to see how Hotfire's chart plays out.

One of the best threads on HC, keep up the good work team.