Decent article on the Ni price slump & where to from here. On p3 they write:
'Prices: Stable At $20,000
Does nickel have much further to fall? In the same Bloomberg interview, Widmer estimated the marginal cost of production at about $17,500 to $20,00/tonne across the industry?and some miners are already hitting that, particularly in the pig iron sector. A note from Barclays released Monday stated, ?Prices have begun to eat into the cost curve resulting in negative margins for some of these high-cost producers.?
What?s more, as Japanese automakers rev their production facilities back up, their demand for stainless steel should likewise recover. That too should support nickel prices against falling too much further.
Viktor Sprogis, deputy chief executive of Norilsk Nickel, told the Financial Times he thought prices should be supported at $20,000 a tonne. ?Below $20,000, a lot of producers, not only Chinese and not only pig iron, will start suffering economic problems,? he said.
In fact, one Barclays analyst argues that nickel may have already fallen too far. ?At these levels, nickel is looking oversold,? metals analyst Gayle Berry told Reuters. ?From a fundamental perspective we don?t see any reason why nickel has underperformed to this extent ? I think the market is pricing in expectations of a better outlook for supply in the second half of the year.?'
ALB Price at posting:
10.5¢ Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
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