Nickel Boner Update, page-5977

Agreed re- the ST Ni price movements (i.e. China restocking and Caledonia strife). In order for POS, who has by its own admission downgraded itself from developer to explorer status, to benefit from Ni would require spot pricing above, say, US$12 for an extended period of time. Can't see that happening, given the continued ongoing supply expansion from sino-backed Indonesia.

Given much of the Indonesian supply relates to vertical integration with downstream businesses in mainland China, I don't see too much incentive for the owners of Chinese capital in Indonesian Ni to attempt to restrict supply and drive prices higher. Their downstream businesses stand to benefit more (in aggregate) from cheaper Ni prices than the potential loss of margin experienced by their (related) upstream cousins.

Also, the Russia vs. West part of the Ni supply equation is largely a zero-sum-game because it doesn't completely remove Russian Ni from the global supply chain. It just shifts it from West to East.

As usual, the beneficiaries of any ST Ni price spike will be existing producers who will be marked-to-market more closely with movements in spot pricing than any explorer (aka wannabe developer with marginal assets) will ever be. That's how it works.