November 2 2017
Australia's nickel industry is at a 'natural turning point'
The price of nickel rose as much as 6 per cent overnight to $US13,030 a metric tonne in London, capping off its biggest two-day advance in five years.
- Lithium and cobalt have ridden the battery technology boom and now it could be nickel's turn for an electric vehicle-related lift.
Nickel looks set to play catch-up with lithium and cobalt.
Shares in ASX-lised Western Areas opened strongly on Thursday, rising 3.2 per cent in morning trading, while main rival Independence Group traded 2.9 per cent higher.
Most of the nickel ore mined in Australia is processed locally into nickel concentrate by downstream smelting and refining companies.
"Australian nickel producers have been in a lot of strife in recent years, but we're starting to see the electric vehicle players begin to shore up supply," says Romano Sala Tenna, portfolio manager at Katana Asset Management.
"While the actual electric vehicles are probably two or three years away, this is extremely good for Australian producers because we have really great grades of nickel."
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Nickel sulphate is a key ingredient in lithium-ion batteries, which are being installed in electric vehicles made by companies from Tesla to General Motors.
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Vehicles offer hope
The electric vehicle industry could revive the fortunes of Australia's nickel industry, which has been in steady decline over the last five years.
As China slowed down its production of nickel-based stainless steel goods around 2012 and infrastructure projects were in short supply, nickel prices slumped as did production.
When Indonesia and the Philippines started to flood the market with low-grade supply, prices collapsed and investors fled the smaller nickel players in droves.
Panoramic Resources and Mincor Resources placed three nickel ore mines on care and maintenance in 2015-16, which further reduced volumes over the last half decade.
Analysts say that over the last five years industry revenue declined at an annualised rate of 10.3 per cent.
But the rise of batteries and the electric vehicle potential has lit a fire underneath the previously languishing commodity. According to commodities trading house, Trafigura Group, demand for nickel will increase 50 per cent to 3 million metric tonnes by 2030.
IBIS figures have industry revenue rising at an annualised 4.7 per cent rate until 2022.
Metals on the march
"It has taken a while for the other shoe to drop, people were so caught up in lithium and graphite,'" says Mr Sala Tenna. "But I expect there will be quite a pronounced deficit in the next few years, so this is a natural turning point for our nickel market.
As it stands BHP Billiton commands 37.8 per cent of the Australian nickel industry's market share, Glencore Holdings has 18.7 per cent, Western Areas has a 13.3 per cent slice and First Quantum Minerals has about 5.6 per cent.
Metals across the board are enjoying a steady march higher, thanks to weak global mining investment and stringent Chinese policy measures to curb pollution
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