Greg Miller, an analyst at BMI, pointed to a number of potential issues on the supply side, focusing on Indonesia's controversial high-pressure acid leaching (HPAL) plants.
Miller noted HPAL production had "consistently has failed to reach nameplate capacity, with projects averaging a 60%-80% of design capacity and often taking several years to ramp up"
Four HPAL plants under development are expected to add over 150,000 tonnes of new supply per year by 2025, with more projects in the pipeline in the years after.
However, COVID-19 has already impacted the projects' timelines, and Miller said Benchmark had heard reports that Chinese engineers were restricted from re-entering Indonesia after Chinese New Year.
"This has added further delays to these projects which were already one to two years behind schedule," said Miller.
"These delays are expected to add further capex increases at these projects, which are already suffering significant overruns, although it is important to note that initial capex estimates were highly ambitious, and ultimately unrealistic," he said.
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