"To some extent all that is happening is it is moving out of visible stocks eg LME and into invisible stocks eg Chinese warehouses ."
any proof of that? Not saying you are wrong though just trying to understand.
The recent big amount that showed up in lme Dubai's warehouses was probably a parcel locked for investment unless Dubai is building few Eiffel tower.
But hey, I fear you contradict a bit yourself. You point out the Dubai story (not sellable parcel or sellable but at higher) but counted in lme warehouses. Knowing the physical market every morning (London) and every Friday (Shanghai) is what dictates the sentiment, try to have 0 or very few physical available in the morning and see what happens to the price.
I have tracked all major producers and I will give you the glencore example. Their trading house sells more than they produce. So where does glencore get the extra? Other producers not hidden storage.
hard to quantify but there has been some weird move from hidden to lme sometimes.
the Shanghai warehouses has raised to 20kt in recent weeks. My suspicion is the hidden Chinese storages are bouncing back to Shanghai warehouses BUT also coming from Europe Netherlands lme aswell because there was an arbitrage for few days between lme and smm.
hope I make sense it's past 3am where I am LOL
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