POS 0.00% 0.4¢ poseidon nickel limited

NICKEL NEWS, page-804

  1. 10,021 Posts.
    lightbulb Created with Sketch. 4334
    as posted on other thread, you have reposted this interview here, so here is my analysis of it again:-

    Proactive CEO interview summary -

    CEO just stated -
    "we are pressing ahead with that restart"..WOW, who needs a FID!
    "we are going ahead with the 1.1mt option..not waiting for the 2.2MT option", WOW
    high 70% payability on the 16% ni conc (ie say 78%) [clearly terms received in writing on met results]
    "triple whammy" of 2.2mt option with same costs, enormous benefit of higher Ni production (6%)
    offtake & finance EOI all received, moving to shortlist then preferred bidder status. (only 25 months later)
    may get offtake & finance from same bidder (implies Trafigura is top bidder, did same at PAN)
    mill refurbishments of $40M, contracts now being negotiated for this restart work on mill, WOW.
    1km of drilling done already using 2 rigs there now at open pit floor, more in Jan
    HR manager is now working on onboarding staff, miners, millers (camp done then)
    may announce offtake finance & FID together, busy months upcoming, tracking along

    On my anaylsis-
    its FULL STEAM AHEAD with the 1.1MTpa option at 78% payability, offtake deal great
    Its FULLY FUNDED minimum $50M with cash at bank $20M now NO DEBT
    PAN style restart looks like
    The FID is only a rubber stamp for the funding received,
    the effective FID was approved in May 2022 imho
    Trafigura is the lead bidder
    No waiting for the 2.2MTpa option, but will work on this while 1.1mtpa is producing, YES!

    YES YES YES PH!
    This is what we & market want to hear. Look at the SP reaction.

    7500pa x $44000 = aud$330Mpa revenue
    thats a EBITDA of $184Mpa not $84Mpa as in the lowball BFS
    (NP 11.00 & low payability no CU Co Credits)
    PER 123/say 160 = 0.8
    forget WSA PER of 39.0 or MCR PER of 9.0

    POS is multi multiples lower than its peers & market realising this really is FULL STEAM AHEAD so near term revenue must be value added as currently market values POS as no revenue for the next decade.

    even at an EBITDA/FCF of $110Mpa at a PER of 9.00 = SP of 30c
    At FCF of $160M at a PER of 10.0 = SP of 50c
    and thats at a mere 20% production capacity at a NP of 11.00 using LG of 1.0%


    Rally, here we go!
    Its a Merry Christmas to long suffering POS LTHs this year.
 
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