andrewe,I agree, those buying in at $1.05 have bought for the...

andrewe,

I agree, those buying in at $1.05 have bought for the arbitrage play.

“what will they do if the higher offer is not forthcoming?”

I can’t see ZFX spending what must amount to be millions on this hostile t/o just to walk away after only 1 insignificant offer, as most would know the first offer is almost always not the last. They know better than us mere shareholders what the future value of AGM will be. This is like a game of chicken at the moment – who will be the first to blink? My personal opinion is it will be ZFX as they need AGM more than AGM need ZFX. I think I’m right in saying that if this bid fails they can’t have another crack for 6 months? By then AGM will be a cash cow earning by my calcs around 11c per share or $7m per month – the share price will be back around $1 without the t/o underpinning it. The t/o price will then be in the order of $1.50 to $2, don’t you think they’d be thinking its better to wrap it up now around $1.30?

“If it fails they may choose to scoop up shares at 50-60c on the market first.”

My own opinion is that when it fails at this price it won’t fall that far. This t/o will have woken many investors, institutions, predators and hedgies up to the potential of AGM. That is a lot of buying power waiting in the wings ready to pounce on some cheap shares. I’m not sure how far it will drop, that is one of the questions I have been asking myself as to where to set my buy price. I and many other long term holders are not concerned by the possible price drop, I’ve been in since July ’04 and recognize the long term potential of this stock being a probable 2-3 mine company, Chinkiat has made many excellent posts on this topic of seeing the bigger China/India picture as a long term investor not a short term speculator.

Cheers

$eeker