Ulysses mate - it's all happening...
Agreed it's gone from ICE -> Hybrid (more Ni) -> EV (more again) -> Lithium converts to Ni chem -> NMC 1:1:1 -> more and more Ni rich chems - I think the Tesla's are at NMC 17:2:1 now?
And Xrsism mentions concerns about miners ramping up production.
But have a look at Jehosephat's stats... and I honestly think they're perhaps even conservative...
Everything I can find on EV sales shows exponential growth.Across global sales - not just China and Tesla.But let's say that Je's linked data is correct and that by 2040 there are 56M sales - I mean I hardly want to model it - because I don't think people really get what it means... But here goes:
| Column 1 | Column 2 | Column 3 |
|---|
| 1 | Year | M EV Sales | kt Ni |
|---|
| 2 | 2016- | 1 | 40 |
|---|
| 3 | 2017 | 1 | 40 |
|---|
| 4 | 2018 | 2 | 80 |
|---|
| 5 | 2019 | 3 | 120 |
|---|
| 6 | 2020 | 4.19 | 167.6 |
|---|
| 7 | 2021 | 5.38 | 215.2 |
|---|
| 8 | 2022 | 6.57 | 262.8 |
|---|
| 9 | 2023 | 7.76 | 310.4 |
|---|
| 10 | 2024 | 8.95 | 358 |
|---|
| 11 | 2025 | 10 | 400 |
|---|
| 12 | 2026 | 13.6 | 544 |
|---|
| 13 | 2027 | 17.2 | 688 |
|---|
| 14 | 2028 | 20.8 | 832 |
|---|
| 15 | 2029 | 24.4 | 976 |
|---|
| 16 | 2030 | 28 | 1120 |
|---|
| 17 | 2031 | 30.8 | 1232 |
|---|
| 18 | 2032 | 33.6 | 1344 |
|---|
| 19 | 2033 | 36.4 | 1456 |
|---|
| 20 | 2034 | 39.2 | 1568 |
|---|
| 21 | 2035 | 42 | 1680 |
|---|
| 22 | 2036 | 44.8 | 1792 |
|---|
| 23 | 2037 | 47.6 | 1904 |
|---|
| 24 | 2038 | 50.4 | 2016 |
|---|
| 25 | 2039 | 53.2 | 2128 |
|---|
| 26 | 2040 | 56 | 2240 |
|---|
| Column 1 | Column 2 | Column 3 |
|---|
| 1 | Total | 587.85 | 23514 |
|---|
(I'm not smart enough to model the data properly - I just used linear growth between the stated data points).
So using Je's NMC chem of 811 at say 40kg of Class I Ni per car - you can see that in 2040 alone there will be the requirement for 2.2 million tonnes of Class I Ni alone.
To give you some idea - in 2017 ~650kt of Class I were produced. And a total of 2.2Mt of Ni of all types produced in the year in total!
View attachment 1632091We are saying that by 2040 there will have been over 580M EVs sold for a total combined Ni used of 23.5 million tonnes of Class I Nickel!!!!
To put this in perspective:
View attachment 1632097That's something like a full one quarter of the combined existing world's Nickel Reserves - consumed (much less dug up and processed etc) in about 20 years!
And that just gets us to being used to EVs. Presumably there is continued used and possibly even further growth going forward!
So to address Xrsism's point - what would an orderly production and consumption of that much of a commodity look like?
Maybe Mad Max where the oil tankers are road trains with Ni Sulphate in them? Or the Oil Depot towns are old EV Battery Recycling plants?
Well may Elon Musk say he's going in to Nickel Mining... For the possible ways to fulfill this much requirement he may as well use Space X to mine asteroids...!!
I think the only way to seriously expect to fulfill this much requirement is to change the chemistries - maybe a carbon graphite solution built in to the body of the car?
But until then, say the next 5-10 years?, I would expect the Ni Price to jump. Pretty much like any commodity boom and bust cycle - but one for the ages...
(20min delay)