On one of the next five trading days, that is by 30April, Metals X will publish its new LOM plan for Nifty.
Last July they told the market that Nifty would be producing 40kt of Cu concentrate by Dec18 at AISC of US$2/lb, maybe just a ploy to get institutions to give them $50mil by placing around 77mil shares at 65c. Anyway the production targets weren't met and the CEO & COO had to fall on their swords.
Now fast-forward to now and the new CEO has to come up with the revised plan this month for the market. We will get a new plan on what the ramp-up tonnages will be for Nifty and how long it will take to get there and at what AISC. It is anyone's guess at this stage but I'm hoping that 32kt will be the target production for FY19/20 at AISC of US$2.50/lb - that would produce EBITDA of US$35mil at a Cu price of US$3/lb - I think this would be a reasonable target for sustainable production going forward. They will probably not drop their 40kt target but use it as a target for FY20/21.
Given current tin prices it would appear that their 50% share of Renison can produce an EBITDA of US$35mil in FY19/20, so it is possible we are looking at an EBITDA of US$70mil(close to $A100mil) in FY19/20.
Hopefully they will also incorporate a new Reserves/Resources Statement on Nifty sulphide ounces in this plan document.
We should also get some colour on their CapEx requirements going forward for both Nifty and Renison and how they intend to finance it. We know our share of the Renison Rentails project is a little over $A100mil but I can't see them starting this project within the next 9 to 12 months so it wouldn't be necessary to raise those funds now. And hopefully cashflow surpluses from Renison can fund most of the Nifty CapEx requirements for the next year.
I am expecting the market will re-rate this share once this new LOM plan is issued this month as it should debunk the worries surrounding Nifty and the possibilities of a new equity raising.
(20min delay)