re: croupier what will cause china meltdown??
Croupier why do you think China will melt down??
I spoke to some Chinese economists, Won Du Zhe, & Yu Wan Suk, at Bejing University the other day and the reckon the following:
The banks are state run and have been carrying a slew of bad debts for years. Easy for the government to just write these off. Further these debts are easy to carry in light of continually increasing reserves from export earnings.
Secondly Export surplus is mopped-up at home leading to excess liquidity which is driving the fantastic domestic growth. Because of peg to USD a USD devaluation just opens more markets in other trading blocs because Chinese exports become relativly cheaper e.g. Europe Conversly USD strength = sustained exports to the US win win for China
Thirdly yuan / renmibi is not going to be allowed to free float for quite some time. Despite G7/banks/funds all screaming for it. They screamed for it back in 1997 during the height of the crisis. No way are the Chinese going to give away their competive advantage..nor open themselves to hot money and the shennigans of a bunch of huge swinging d1cks from wall street....
It will have to get really nasty before anything changes and this is not on the horizon yet.
